Japan Facing Power Shortfall This Summer

TOKYO—Japan faces potential power shortfalls as high as 18.7% in the important manufacturing region around Osaka, a draft government panel report showed Thursday, presenting figures likely to contribute to the debate over whether to bring any of the nation's nuclear plants back online.
The projections are based on a scenario where none of Japan's reactors have resumed operations by this summer and where the weather is as severe as in 2010—the hottest summer since the country started collecting data in 1898.


The panel is expected to submit the report to the government as early as Saturday, after further discussions about potential steps to promote conservation, such as imposing higher rates during peak demand hours.
All of Japan's reactors have been offline since the No. 3 unit at the Tomari nuclear power plant on the northernmost island of Hokkaido was shut down May 5 for routine safety inspections. Such checks are required every 13 months, and public concerns about safety since the March 2011 Fukushima nuclear-plant crisis have stopped any reactor from being restarted.

A wind turbine is seen behind utility poles in Tokyo. Japan faces potential power shortfalls as high as 18.7% this summer in the important manufacturing region around Osaka.

Business leaders have urged lawmakers to bring some reactors back online to avoid hurting energy-intensive manufacturing and the broader economy.
In late April, the government decided it was safe and necessary to restart two reactors at Kansai Electric Power Co.'s Oi nuclear-power plant in Fukui prefecture in western Japan, but no further steps have been taken due to strong opposition from neighboring Kyoto, Shiga and Osaka prefectures.
"We have been considering what we can do, but it is still difficult to send a clear message because Kansai Electric's explanations have changed frequently," said an official at the Osaka city's environmental department.
Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto is one of the most vocal opponents to restarting the Oi reactors. But he said the city's official position is that it is open to using nuclear power to avoid a serious electricity shortage.
Questions have been raised by industry analysts about the figures used in the projections, which come from the utilities. Some industry analysts say Kansai Electric appears to have provided much smaller figures for its thermal and hydroelectric power capacity to win support for restarting the two Oi reactors.
A Kansai Electric spokeswoman said such speculation is baseless. "We are happy to explain the entire situation to anyone," she said.
Both sides in the debate say it is difficult to accurately estimate usage levels, because unpredictable temperatures and air-conditioning demand are key variables.
"It all depends on the weather," said Kazuhiko Watanabe, an analyst of Japan Electric Power Survey Committee, a think tank.
Last summer, Japan imposed a 15% reduction for large power users in the eastern part of Japan during the peak part of the season. The mandatory cuts applied to Tokyo Electric Power Co. and Tohoku Electric Power Co.'s service areas.
Combined with voluntary conservation efforts by smaller businesses and residential users, Japan managed to avoid major power shortages last summer. In Tokyo, many buildings dimmed their lights and turned down air conditioners even as temperatures soared.
But nuclear power was still generating 11% of Japan's power supply last August, according to industry data, making the threat of shortages greater this year.
"We are now taking measures to deal with potential shortages among each of the regional utilities," said Yoichi Kobayashi, a spokesman for semiconductor maker Renesas Electronics Corp. "It is very difficult for our business to take measures like stopping lines at peak hours."
Some big Japanese manufacturers don't have plans to sharply cut their electricity usage. In particular, the auto industry has said it won't substitute weekend work shifts for weekdays, something that eased the burden on the power supply grid last year.
"We expect that there will be a sufficient supply of electricity so as not to impact any of our operations," Satoshi Ozawa, Toyota Motor Corp. chief financial officer, told reporters Wednesday.
The Japan Meteorological Agency predicts relatively higher temperatures in May through July compared with the average of the past 30 years. The agency will release its outlook for the June-August quarter around May 25.

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