Can Efficiency Counter a Loss of Nuclear Power? The Answer is - No

By MATTHEW L. WALD

The carbon intensity of Japan’s energy mix rose after some nuclear plants shut down in 2011.

In an era when almost every energy technology is unpopular with somebody, the people who don’t want wind turbines, generating stations or new transmission lines installed in their neighborhoods often raise the idea of improving energy efficiency as an alternative.

That argument is particularly common in New York State and in Vermont, where state governments are trying to close nuclear reactors within their borders. So, how effectively can efficiency replace a reactor, making up for the loss of this zero-carbon energy source?

Not very, according to a new study of carbon dioxide output in Japan in the months around the Fukushima disaster.

Figures collected by the Breakthrough Institute, a group that often presents contrarian views on environmentalism and energy conservation, found that despite stringent efforts to use less energy, Japan emitted 4 percent more carbon dioxide in November 2011 than it did in the same month the previous year. After a quake and tsunami in March 2011 led to three meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear plant, Japan began closing other plants as well, one because it appeared vulnerable to tsunami and others because local officials did not want them running.

Energy consumption dropped sharply and was nearly 10 percent lower last November than in November 2010, the institute’s figures show. But with natural gas, oil and coal substituting for about 46 reactors, the production of carbon dioxide per unit of energy produced ran about 15 percent higher.

The pattern was the same all year after the March 11 tsunami and quake: consumption dropped but fuel burn increased. This was true even though Japan ran office air-conditioners at far reduced levels last summer and some demand had disappeared because of damage from the disaster.

What analogy can be drawn at Indian Point, 30 miles north of New York City, or Vermont Yankee, near Brattleboro? This month, a New York State Assembly committee concluded that Indian Point was replaceable, an assertion sharply disputed by a business consumer group.

Jason Grumet, an air pollution expert and founder of the Bipartisan Policy Center, said it was hard to draw direct parallels. “The circumstances in the United States are obviously different from Japan,’’ he said. For one thing, Japan was parsimonious in its use of electricity even before Fukushima, and American consumers probably have more fat to cut.

But in either country, he said, it is true that “a decrease in nuclear production in favor of fossil fuels will increase carbon intensity of the power sector, and total carbon dioxide emissions.’’

“It’s an incredibly difficult public policy challenge’’ for the United States, Mr. Grumet said, with different imperatives colliding. “One is to ensure that the aging fleet of nuclear plants is held to the highest safety standards, and the second is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions,’’ he said. “And the third is to keep the lights on.”

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