Nuclear Power – The World Report 2012 - 2030

(Re-posted)

By Lee S. Gliddon III
Research by:  Mary Owings, Lee S. Gliddon III

Mark Twain once said, "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."  Like Mark Twain, recent reports of the death of nuclear power are also greatly exaggerated, but unlike the prolific author who died in 1910, nuclear power will be present, with growth scheduled for decades to come, throughout the planet.  Recent trends, plans, and quotes from the world community let us know there will be expansion of nuclear power, not contraction.

WORLDWIDE

Growth in nuclear power reactors is expected throughout the world and particularly from China and India.  Over 80 new nuclear power plants are expected to be commissioned by 2017.  61 nuclear plants are under construction and an additional 491 are planned or proposed.  That number has grown by 9 since the Fukushima event.   

The International Energy Agency estimates world electricity demand will double by 2030.  The advantages are that nuclear energy is not subject to unreliable weather or climate, uranium supplies are solid, and there are zero carbon emissions.  Ever improving technology have new plants producing far more energy using less fuel; while being less expensive to build with far less waste.  Countries looking to meet their Kyoto environmental commitments simply cannot without nuclear power.

EUROPE

Currently almost 30% of the electricity consumed in the European Union comes from nuclear power. Although Germany has claimed they will “get off” nuclear power; it remains an important technology of choice and the European Commission will maintain and develop research into nuclear power.  France alone obtains over 70% of its electricity needs from nuclear power with no plans to change.

Germany

German Chancellor Merkel has vowed to get off nuclear power.  That goal is costing Germany economically and environmentally already.  Germany was a net exporter of energy and is now at a “break even” point with still over half of its nuclear reactors online.  Germany is now slated to build 17 new coal and 29 new gas-fired plants.  Meanwhile, German environmentalists are upset as 25 million tons of carbon emissions have been added according to, Laszlo Varro of the International Energy Agency.  

The Czech Republic defies Germany

Merkel backed down on the German position regarding its neighbors which was to oppose the Czech Republic’s plan to build two more reactors at the Temelin nuclear power station near the German and Austrian border.  There may even be a long term plan to buy energy from the Czech Republic as Germany must begin to buy energy from its neighbors.

Belarus embraces nuclear power 

The first Belarus plant, currently under construction, is scheduled to come online in 2017.

Belarus plans to build a second nuclear power plant with the help of the United Nations.  "If we have IAEA cooperation, support and suitable conditions, we are ready to build a second nuclear power station in Belarus," President Alexander Lukashenko said early this year.

"I strongly believe that atomic power is a must and that it is the safest way to acquire cheap energy that the world will need in larger and larger amounts," Lukashenko said.

The most noteworthy element of this position is that Belarus is the country most seriously affected by the Chernobyl disaster.

ASIA

The economic growth in Asia has rapidly increased energy needs.  Nuclear power is viewed as the source to enable continued expansion.

China buys resources and continues nuclear plant construction

China is currently engaged in negotiations with Areva SA (AREVA) to buy a stake in the company’s uranium mine operations.  China intends to continue its record growth fueled by nuclear power and resumes its approval process for even more nuclear reactors.  According to the China Nuclear Energy Association, it is building at least 27 reactors and has 50 more planned.

India’s nuclear power aspirations forge ahead despite activists 

India’s plan to build six Russian reactors in Kudankulam was conceived in the late 1980’s.  Activists protesting have delayed commissioning of the first reactor, which is 99% complete, and a second reactor that is 94% complete.  Even ardent anti-nuclear activists acknowledge that India has a huge energy shortfall, producing 12% less electricity than it needs at peak times, resulting in frequent, extended blackouts.  

The postponements attributed to the activists have added $500 million to the now-$3.3-billion project.  The Indian government appears to have had enough with the delays.  In February 2012, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh accused foreign groups of funding the protests to hold back India’s development.  The Indian government went as far as arresting and deporting a German national, Hermann Rainer Sonntag, accusing him of funding the Kudankulam protests.  Recent Indian government activity points to a new commitment to completing Kudankulam and pushing for even more nuclear reactors.

Recent approvals have marked the next phase of growth in the Indian nuclear power program.

South Korea partners with Vietnam continuing Southeast Asia nuclear power growth

South Korea currently has 21 nuclear reactors with a combined regular capacity of 19,259 megawatts.  With its nuclear expertise, South Korea’s Ministry of Knowledge Economy said in March 2012 that it had signed an agreement with its Vietnamese counterpart on building a nuclear power plant.

The Vietnam plans will mark the second South Korean consortium to build nuclear plants for other countries.  A group led by Korea Electric Power Corp. signed an $18.6 billion deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in late 2009 under which they would build a total of four nuclear reactors in the UAE.

RUSSIA (Europe/Asia)

Russia receives 16% of all its energy from nuclear power generation.  Russia announced in 2003 a policy to reduce natural gas power ad to increase nuclear power generation in attempt to hit 23% of its electricity needs by 2020 and 25% by 2030 through nuclear power.  The planned increase in reactors is from 31 to 59 by 2030.

Russia sees Germany’s move away from nuclear power as a huge opportunity as anticipated German energy shortfalls will be met with increased exports of Russian natural gas.

Russia is also exporting its nuclear power expertise throughout the world for projects in China, India, Vietnam, Iran, and Turkey.

AFRICA

Several African countries including Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana and Kenya are at different stages of nuclear development. South Africa exploits nuclear energy for power generation and is expanding its capacity. More than 20 African countries have made the political decision to go nuclear.  The developing world has chosen its path for growth and nuclear power has a strong role.

Kenya’s quest to modernize embraces nuclear power 

A political decision marks approval regarding nuclear electricity. It has given rise to the formation of the Nuclear Electricity Project Committee. By December 2015, Kenya should be ready to for bids on its first nuclear power plant. By the end of 2022, Kenya projects it will be ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant which will generate at least 1000MW, and increasing  to 4000MW by 2030 with the construction of three more nuclear power plants.

South Africa plans large investment

South Africa will likely spend more than $78 billion on new nuclear plants, another coal-fired plant, and a hydropower project in the Democratic Republic of Congo to stave off power shortages in Africa’s largest economy.  Proposals to spend $39 billion on nuclear plants with the capacity to generate 9,600 megawatts of energy by 2029 are in the “final stages of consideration,” the Treasury said in February 2012.

SOUTH AMERICA

Argentina’s growth is accommodated 

Soon, Argentina will receive 10% of its electricity from nuclear power.  In September 2011, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner attended the opening of Argentina’s third nuclear plant, Atucha II, and highlighted the fact that “Argentina is a leader in the use of nuclear power for peaceful purposes.”

Mrs. Kirchner announced that 45.5% more megawatts of energy have been created since 2003. ”In the past 8 years, new factories, businesses and workshops have needed more energy,” she said.

Electricity consumption in Argentina has grown strongly since 1990. Per capita consumption was just over 2000 kWh/yr in 2002 and rose to over 2600 kWh/yr in 2007. Gross electricity production in 2007 was 115 billion kWh.  In 2008, nuclear power provided over 6.8 billion kWh of electricity – about 6.2% of total electricity generation.  Argentina expects the overall percent of nuclear energy to rise.

Argentina now plans to build another nuclear plant, Atucha III to meet its increasing energy needs.

Brazil’s high energy demands

Brazil is the world’s tenth largest consumer of energy and the demand is growing.  Brazil’s natural uranium resources account for 5% of the total in the world according to the World Nuclear Association.  The country has two nuclear reactors Angra I and II with plans to have Angra III complete by 2014.

Brazil’s Senate approved fiscal incentives for nuclear power in June of 2011.  The new direction offers Eletrobras (EBR), along with equipment partners, the ability to buy capital goods, building materials, infrastructure materials and nuclear industry specific technologies for use in energy generation without having to pay the industrial production tax, nor tariffs on imported goods.  Germany is a beneficiary of this embrace of nuclear power by Brazil as Germany’s E.On is planning a building new nuclear power plant in Brazil. Four more large Brazilian reactors are expected to come on line by 2025, according to the World Nuclear Association.

NORTH AMERICA 

Canada’s Energy Czar - Nuclear industry will thrive 

Nuclear generation supplies 15% of Canada’s electricity needs and 60% of Ontario’s with 18 reactors providing over 12,600 MWe of power.  Canada has plans to expand its nuclear capacity over the next decade by building more reactors.  

"While other jurisdictions may be scaling back their nuclear energy commitment because of Fukushima, we are not," Tom Mitchell, president and CEO of Ontario Power Generation (OPG), declared in an address Thursday to several hundred Ottawa delegates at the Canadian Nuclear Association's annual conference.

United States falters on nuclear industry

While providing support publicly for new nuclear plant construction the current U.S. Administration apparently has a far different position on nuclear power.  Two nuclear sites have been in construction since President Obama took office.  

The first site was South Texas Project 3&4.  In April 2011, NRG Energy that owned the application for the two new reactors announced they were abandoning the process due to a slow permitting process which drove up costs.  Behind the scenes, the U.S. Federal Government pulled the loan guarantee previously offered during the previous administration forcing NRG Energy to write off its $331 million investment.

The only active site under construction is the Vogtle Project in Georgia.  Less than a month ago it was announced that Georgia Power and its partners may not be able to reach terms with the US Department of Energy on $8.3 billion in loan guarantees to finance the Vogtle nuclear plant expansion.  The Federal Government increased the interest rate and hit the project with an $800 million “application fee”.  The U.S. nuclear power industry is watching with great concern.

Although there are dozens of applications being submitted for new plants in the U.S., the recent collapse of STP 3&4 and the sudden changes on the Vogtle Project may tell of a demise of the past dominance of the U.S. nuclear industry.   But, with 104 active reactors and nearly 20% of U.S. Energy coming from nuclear power there is little concern of big changes as there is no viable replacement.

Summary

The countries that are embracing nuclear power have realized historical trends of reduced energy costs, growth, and an improved standard of living.  As third world nations progress and their energy demands necessarily increase, nuclear power has become an approved energy source.  

It is expected that countries embracing nuclear power will be on an economic growth pattern.  These include:  Russia, China, India, France, and Canada.  Those rejecting nuclear power will realize increased energy costs and a lowered standard of living.  These countries include:  The United States, Germany, and Japan.  

The claims that nuclear power is, “on its deathbed”, is a gross misrepresentation of the actual current state of world energy affairs.  New plants are not only safer, but require less fuel, produce less waste and much more power.  The embrace of nuclear power by most of the world ensures that nuclear power is here to stay.