Kenya: Nuclear Energy Can Speed Up Vision 2030

Three significant developments took place in the world of nuclear energy recently.

In Nairobi, the United Nations Environment Programme UNEP released its 2012 Yearbook which includes a treatise on the closing and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors at the end of their lifespans.

In London, the U.K and France signed a deal to strengthen co-operation in the development of civil nuclear energy. In the US, safety regulators gave the go-ahead for the construction of two nuclear power reactors in Georgia. One of the experiences highlighted in the report in the UNEP Yearbook is that decommissioning the first generation of nuclear reactors would have been easier and less expensive if they had been designed with this stage in mind. Absence of that has led to costs that would otherwise have been avoided.

The report recommends that nuclear power plants should be designed from the beginning for safe and efficient decommissioning, as well as for their safe operation, accident prevention, and safety with respect to the potentially affected public and the environment. These findings are important as they enrich Kenya's prefeasibility study which is addressing 19 infrastructure issues among them radioactive waste, radiation protection, environmental protection and safeguards. The recent debate has juxtaposed nuclear energy with renewable energy. One school of thought leans on the premise that Kenya should concentrate on renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and geothermal.

Indeed, Kenya has a geothermal potential of about 7000MW although only a fraction of that has been harnessed. The Least Cost Power Development Plan 2011- 2031 indicates that Kenya requires an installed capacity of at least 16000MW. Now even if all the geothermal potential is harnessed we would still have a very significant deficit.

For Kenya to industrialize under the Vision 2030 blueprint, it requires a huge base load-the constant or permanent load on a power supply- which can be obtained from coal, nuclear, oil and geothermal. Wind, solar and hydro are good for peaking -when there is a maximum demand for power-rather than for base load. No country worldwide has ever industrialized on wind, solar and other renewable forms of energy. The reason is quite simply that industry requires an assured base load to function.

Several African countries including Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Ghana and Kenya are at different stages of nuclear development. South Africa exploits nuclear energy for power generation and is expanding its capacity. More than 20 African countries have made the political decision to go nuclear.

Currently, the installed generation capacity of the whole Africa, 50-odd countries, is about 110GW - less than Germany's capacity. Over 500 million out of 1.6 billion people in the world, who currently do not have access to electricity live in Africa. Only about one-fifth of the sub-Saharan population has access to electricity. Can renewable energy alone really surmount this huge gap?

To achieve Vision 2030, Kenya's energy mix must of necessity include hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, coal, thermal and nuclear. China and South Korea, two of Asia's booming economies are making substantial investment in nuclear energy for electricity generation. Kenya is currently in the pre-feasibility stage of the nuclear electricity project. A political decision has been taken regarding nuclear electricity. That is what gave rise to the formation of the Nuclear Electricity Project Committee via a gazette notice by the Energy Minister in November 2010.

However, the pre-feasibility study which centres around 19 infrastructure issues will provide the ultimate technical opinion on whether or not the country should go ahead with plans for nuclear electricity. A positive technical report to the government by the Nuclear Electricity Project Committee will enable the process move to the feasibility stage. Calls for Kenya to 'abandon' nuclear electricity in favour of renewable energy are premature. The pre-feasibility study report will enable the country make an informed decision on the matter premised on clear parameters that meet strict international guidelines and standards set by the IAEA.

The timeline is that by the end of 2012 or the first quarter 2013 at the latest, Kenya should be ready to make a knowledgeable commitment to a nuclear program. The govt. will submit that prefeasibility study report of the first nuclear power plant to Parliament for approval and decision to be made on conducting the feasibility study. By December 2015, Kenya should be ready to invite bids for the first nuclear power plant. By the end of 2022, Kenya should be ready to commission and operate the first nuclear power plant which would infuse at least 1000MW into the national grid, rising to 4000MW by 2030 with the construction of three more nuclear power plants.

The issue of radioactive waste management is relevant during all phases of a nuclear power plant. For instance, France which has around 60 nuclear power stations for electricity generation will make its decision on the final storage of high level radioactive waste in 2025. Indeed no country has made that decision just as yet. So Kenya has time on its hands and best practice that will be obtained and learnt from those countries with end-of-life nuclear plants.

The deal between France and the UK to enhance civil nuclear energy co-operation and the greenlight for the construction of two nuclear power plants in Georgia, USA demonstrates that nuclear electricity generation is growing by the day, buoyed by being a clean, affordable and reliable source of energy, not susceptible to vagaries of weather or international fossil fuel prices.