Phasing out nuclear power could reduce Japan's GDP by 7%

Japan risks taking a 45-trillion-yen ($564 billion) hit to its economy if it does away with nuclear power generation by 2030.

That is the figure presented at a panel of Cabinet ministers overseeing the rewriting of the nation’s energy strategy.

The complete abandonment of nuclear energy is only one of three policy options chosen by the Energy and Environment Council as the basis of a two-month public consultation on energy policy that started on June 29.

But estimates by four research organizations reported at the panel make clear the likely costs of going nuclear-free, predicting that the average monthly electricity bill for a family of two or more would increase from the current 10,000 yen to between 14,000 yen and 21,000 yen.

That bill is likely to be between 14,000 yen and 18,000 yen if nuclear power is still shouldering 15 percent of the nation’s electricity supply in 2030, and 12,000 yen to 18,000 yen if it accounts for 20-25 percent of supply.

According to the estimates, Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2030 would be 8 trillion yen to 45 trillion yen less in the case of zero reliance than when the current energy policy is maintained.

The decline would be 2 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen under the 15-percent scenario and 2 trillion yen to 28 trillion yen if the ratio falls to 20-25 percent.

The top end of the estimated impact of a nuclear-free policy represents a 7.4-percent cut in GDP, compared with the 2030 projection when the current policy is maintained.

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