By MARI IWATA
TOKYO—The Japanese government said it expects electricity shortages in Tokyo as well as in the Kansai and Kyushu regions this summer, shaping up to be the country's first peak-demand season without nuclear power since 1965.In a preliminary report Wednesday, the government's national policy unit projected a 5% shortage for Tokyo and 4% shortages for Kansai and Kyushu. The forecast is based on peak-demand data from last summer, and on supply-capacity figures submitted by utilities. It takes into account the possible resumption of power-saving programs in place last summer, which were estimated to have trimmed typical demand levels by around 10%.
The projections come amid a debate over whether currently idled nuclear plants should be brought back online; the government is in the final stages of deciding whether to allow the restart two reactors operated by Kansai Electric Power Co. 9503.TO -1.22% Since the March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, no plant idled for routine maintenance has been restarted.
The figures released Wednesday will be the basis for discussions between the government and utilities on how to alleviate energy shortfalls. During last year's peak-demand season, Japan required large power users in the eastern part of the country—the service areas of Tokyo Electric Power Co. 9501.TO -2.55% and Tohoku Electric Power Co. 9506.TO -2.07% —to cut their electricity use by 15%.
The government plans to calculate its final estimates for this summer by factoring in more electricity-saving measures including higher rates during peak hours. It will present its estimates to a government panel as early as Monday.
As of Saturday, when the No. 3 unit at the Tomari nuclear power plant on the northern island of Hokkaido goes offline for a planned checkup—required every 13 months in Japan—there will be no reactors operating the country.
Through compulsory usage restrictions for large-lot users and voluntary conservation efforts in the eastern part of the country, Japan managed to evade any major power shortages last summer. In Tokyo, many buildings dimmed their lights and turned down air conditioners, even as temperatures rose past 35 degrees Celsius.
But nuclear power was still generating 11% of Japan's power supply last August, according to industry data. The loss of that power makes the potential for shortages even greater this year than last, despite efforts by utilities to boost non-nuclear generation to make up for the shortfall.
The situation could be further exacerbated if temperatures are closer to the record highs reached in 2010. Last month, trade and industry minister Yukio Edano said that with no nuclear reactors back online in the summer, the area served by Kansai Electric could suffer an energy shortfall of around 20% if temperatures reached the levels they did that summer. That would require said companies and households to take energy-conservation measures of more than 20%.
"There are so many factors at work here, and it's not easy to estimate precisely. I wouldn't advise that you expect any upward revision" in power-supply capacity, said Hirofumi Kawachi, an energy-industry senior analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities.
Business leaders have urged lawmakers to bring reactors that have completed their maintenance checks back online before electricity demand peaks in the summer months, to avoid damage the economy.
But public fears about safety remain strong, with public opinion polls showing an overwhelming majority oppose the restarts.
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